The cat i' the adage

"The growth of knowledge depends entirely on disagreement" Karl Popper (1902 - 1994)

Thursday, March 24, 2005

AIDS in South Africa: still waiting for the holocaust

Anita Allen at Red Flags puts things in perspective.

The Predictions:

AIDS plan must make up for lost time (The Star 17 Dec 1999. Health-e News Service) quoted 4 million HIV infected in South Africa and 1600 new infections a day, of which 40% would die in five years (this equates to about 2,3 million deaths in 2004 compared to Statssa report of total deaths from all causes natural and unnatural from 1997 to 2002 of 2,8 million).

The Impending Catastrophe (June 2000. LoveLife Report of Henry J Kaiser Foundation) Aids deaths 120000 in 2000 rising to between 354000 - 383000 in 2005 (that equals 90% of total deaths from natural causes in Statssa report). Population 47 million by 2010 under best case scenario. Under worst case scenario population will peak at 46,7 million in 2008 and have negative growth thereafter. (Population in SA already at 46,3 million).

The reality:

Statistics must be compared to the reality of a more than 10% population growth in South Africa (SA) over the past five years - from 41.3 million to 46.3 million by 2004. Also, according to the Statistics SA report released last month (refer to my previous Letter from South Africa), 7000 to 10000 deaths from HIV and AIDS a year according to death certificates from 1997 to 2002.


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