The cat i' the adage

"The growth of knowledge depends entirely on disagreement" Karl Popper (1902 - 1994)

Friday, May 06, 2005

Those election predictions

I concede that my election predictions (35% Lab, 35% Con, 22% LibDim) were a little generous to the Conservatives. If I were a polling organization I would point out that the results were within the standard margin of error. This is more than can be said for the woeful Populus tracking poll that has been scaring us for weeks every time we passed a copy of the Times.

Their eve-of-election shocker got the Liberal Democrat vote spot on, but gave 41% to Labour (actual vote 36.3%) and a ludicrous 27% to the Tories (actual vote 33.2%). The actual difference between the parties was 3% instead of the anticipated 14%. A predictive performance that can only be compared with Zogby's.

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